It's been quite some time since I have commented on this blog.

Now something important has happened.

For the first time since 2006 the growth in Corrected Money Supply (my measure of money) has dipped below 0%.

It first went below 0% in June 2018 (using the latest figures from the St Louis Federal Bank web site. The data keep getting revised for several months which is why my previous post did not capture the fall below zero.) though it was above 0% in June 2019, the latest I am able to calculate.

In September 2006 CMS growth fell below 0% and continued to stay below until August 2007. The Great Recession began in December 2007.

It is to be seen if this time is any different.