05 April 2016

Who benefits from low interest rates?

In the Keynesian imagination lowering interest rates spurs companies to increase investment and output and consumers to plunk down money on big ticket items like cars and houses.

Japan has held interest rates close to zero levels for the better part of two and a half decades and the glorious recovery, which according to theory should have happened a long time ago, is nowhere in sight. Ditto for Europe and the US, though for shorter periods.

Could the theory be wrong and do low interest rates have quite the opposite effects? The graphs below are illuminating.

The first shows corporate profits after tax for the finance and insurance industry from 1998 to 2013. There is nothing surprising about it. For the greater part of the period it shows that when interest rates are lowered financial profits go up.

The next graph is more surprising. It shows that for the greater part of the period from 1954 to 2016, manufacturing employment rises with the Fed Funds Rate and falls when the Fed Funds Rate falls.

The final two graphs illustrate the same point.

These graphs go further to establish the point we made in a previous post: that raising interest rates from very low levels helps increase the supply of loans to the real economy by making investment in financial assets unprofitable. See Higher interest rates benefit the real economy.


Category: Economics


Philip George
Debunker of Keynesian, monetarist and Austrian economics

Buy my new ebook
Contact Me
Categories
Books
Communism
Economics
Google
Income-Tax
Internet
Kerala
Mathematics
Miscellaneous
Mobile-Sites
Science
Search-Engines
Archives
December 2016
October 2016
August 2016
July 2016
April 2016
March 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
June 2015
May 2015
February 2015
November 2014
October 2014
August 2014
May 2014
April 2014
December 2013
October 2013
July 2013
May 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
August 2010
October 2009
May 2009
June 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
August 2007
June 2007
May 2007