03 April 2023
A new paper of mine has been published in "real world economics review".
Title: Why is yield-curve inversion such a good predictor of recessions?
Abstract: Yield curve inversion has traditionally been ascribed to investor expectations. This paper shows instead that it is the result of changes in real variables like investment and consumption, and that these changes are set in motion by central bank actions.
Why is yield-curve inversion such a good predictor of recessions?
Category: Economics