05 December 2015
Most recessions in the US are triggered off by the Fed squeezing during a monetary contraction after permitting a long period of expansion. This time seems to be no different, as the graph below shows.
YoY monetary growth as on 1 October 2015 was down to 2.8%. If the fall continues at the same pace we should see signs of financial distress as early as the second half of next year.