26 August 2015

Real interest rates paint a gloomy picture

The graph below shows real interest rates from January 2001 to July 2015. It is derived by subtracting the annual inflation rate (using the Consumer's Price Index for all Urban Consumers, all items) from Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.

It shows the real interest rate in May, June and July 2015 was 4.02%, 4.07% and 3.98%.

By way of comparison, in October 2006 the real interest rate touched 4.2%. Just a few months later the financial crisis began unfolding. In February 2007, Freddie Mac announced that it would no longer buy the most risky subprime mortgages and mortgage-related securities.

It is useful to compare this with the graph of Corrected Money Supply below, reproduced from my May 2015 post.

Category: Economics


Philip George
Understanding Keynes to go beyond him

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